Attention Aspiring Fix-and-Flippers: Is 8207 Variel Ave a Good Deal?
Yesterday, I visited the property at 8207 Variel Ave. in Canoga Park, currently listed for $722,000. After crunching the numbers, I estimate the After Renovation Value (ARV) to be around $779,000, which doesn’t leave much room for profit given the current listing price.
The property is attracting plenty of interest—I encountered several other potential buyers at the showing, and I had a brief chat with the listing agent, Geralynn. Unfortunately, she didn’t provide much insight beyond stating that the sale is without confirmation and the attorney is looking for the “best price and terms.”
Based on my analysis, it would take about three months to complete the renovation and another three months, at worst, to sell the property. However, here’s where the deal gets tricky. The renovation would cost approximately $103,000, with operating costs around $22,000, and loan payments estimated at $25,000. That brings the total cash required for this project to about $144,000.
After all that investment, the potential gross or net profit would only be around $52,000. In my opinion, that’s a pretty tight margin for the amount of work involved, especially when you factor in the competition and the current listing price. To make this deal work, the ideal acquisition price would need to be closer to $425,000.
Final Recommendation:
Unless you can secure a heavy discount, this blast-from-the-past 1950s home is a hard pass as a fix-and-flip opportunity. The high list price, combined with the style of the listing agent and the hit-or-miss neighborhood between Roscoe and Sherman Way in Canoga Park, makes this deal far from ideal. You don’t want to be the first flipper in the area—you’ll likely lose money trying to lead the charge in pushing up quality and value in this neighborhood as it stands today.
Check out the links for more details:
If you’re still considering this property, make sure to fully assess the risks before diving in. In a market like this, the numbers have to work, and right now, they just don’t.
